Fed decision in Mar 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 35% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 48%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A hiking Fed makes a March hold depend on how the 2026 path ends
March matters because it shows whether the Fed's step-by-step hikes end or continue into 2027. The model's case, 49% in seven days, rests on a further hike path in the Sep-Dec decisions pulling down the hold chance.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 48% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 35%
- The market closes: 17 Mar 2027
- How it resolves: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on March 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 42 days: off by 10.6 points against 12.5 points for standing still; closer on 22 of 42 days
- Fitted on 376 days of history
How the model works
A further hike path priced into the Sep-Dec decisions market pulls down the chance the Fed simply holds in March 2027. The market's own level is the base.
- Each move in the chance of a hike-pause-hike path shifts the March hold chance by -27% in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -30%; the data say -27% ± 0.17, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) · Hike–Pause–Hike: 96% on 10 Nov 2026
- Fed decision in Mar 2027? · Fed maintains rate: 48% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 49%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 61%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 54%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 49%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 54%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 48%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 35% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 48%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:4cc9498b165a · Updated 8 Nov 2026 09:29 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.