# Where will Wholesale diesel future be in seven days?

Where will Wholesale diesel future be in seven days? DataSnack's model says $4.35/gal (11 Nov 2026); it is $4.21/gal now. It has no graded forecasts yet.

## DataSnack's read

**Diesel's next move depends on shipping chokepoints more than on Russian cargoes**

Diesel prices feed freight and input costs across the economy, so a miss on direction matters well beyond one contract. The model's case rests on adding Bab el-Mandeb closure odds: 20¢ a day off, against 23¢ for no change.}</br>

## The numbers

- Wholesale diesel future now: $4.21/gal
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: $4.35/gal
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 20¢ against 23¢ for standing still; closer on 40 of 60 days
- Fitted on 246 days of history

## How the model works

The diesel future starts from its latest close. It shifts with the two-week change in the reading of Russian diesel cargo stories, then with the two-week change in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure. With no change in either, the price stays where it is.

- Each 1.0 rise in the Russian diesel cargo reading over two weeks moves the diesel future by about 0 over the following week, as more supply bound for the US eases the market. DataSnack's author expected -0.28; the data say 0 ± 0.099, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each full unit rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure over two weeks moves the diesel future by about -2.29 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -2; the data say -2.29 ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Fed by

- [Bab el-Mandeb closure chance in a week](https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:3dcb42fed129) (its number now): Each full unit rise in the market's chance of a Bab el-Mandeb closure over two weeks moves the diesel future by about -2.29 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -2; the data say -2.29 ± 1, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Russian diesel cargo bound for the US (reading): 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? · December 31: 8% on 11 Nov 2026
- Heating oil (ULSD) front-month future close, the diesel benchmark (Yahoo Finance): $4.21/gal on 9 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet.

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says $4.35/gal seven days from now.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

**Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet?** Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:531939861d22.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:531939861d22 · Updated 11 Nov 2026 05:22 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.