Crude Oil all time high by...?
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 16% (9 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A record oil price needs a war shock that recovering supply no longer supplies
A record high would mean inflation and energy earnings reprice well beyond oil. The model's case rests on a 21% chance in seven days against a 16% market, with WTI moves and de-escalation news tilting it.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 16% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the ne…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 24 days: off by 4.2 points against 4.4 points for standing still; closer on 17 of 24 days
- Fitted on 27 days of history
How the model works
The market asks whether front-month crude tops $147.27 before the close. WTI is near $100, so that takes a large spike. With no new shock, the chance decays as the window shrinks. Oil moves on Iran diplomacy and inventory draws, so recent WTI changes and the de-escalation reading tilt the chance.
- With no new spike this week, the chance of a record high shrinks as the window closes, at about 0 times a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 0; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each $1 move in WTI over the past week shifts the chance's log-odds by about 0.0016 in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each 1.0 rise in the US-Iran de-escalation reading over the past week shifts the chance's log-odds by about -0.386 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected -1 in log-odds; the data say -0.386 in log-odds ± 0.53, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Crude Oil all time high by...? · March 31, 2027: 16% on 10 Nov 2026
- WTI crude oil, Cushing (FRED): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
- US-Iran de-escalation reading: 0.35 score on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 20%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 20%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 18%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 16%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 17%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 16%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:5675e0946ed5 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 05:37 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.