Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 79% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 80%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Anthropic's coding lead rests on neutral rankings, not vendor claims
The market puts Anthropic at 78%, and the result turns on one LiveBench.ai scoreboard on Dec 31, 2026. The model's case rests on a small reversal of last week's move, which leaves its 78% call unchanged from today's chance.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 80% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 79%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.9 points against 3.9 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 60 days
- Fitted on 304 days of history
How the model works
The market's own number tended to partly reverse after a weekly move, so the model starts from today's chance and applies a small pull back that the data will fit.
- About -0.168 in log-odds of last week's move in the market's own number carries into the next week, a negative value meaning it partly reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.18 in log-odds; the data say -0.168 in log-odds ± 0.094. A rough rule.
Sources
- Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? · Anthropic: 80% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 78%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 78%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 78%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 77%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 81%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 78%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 79% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 80%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:56e5fbead5d1 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:51 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.