2028 U.S. House winner?
DataSnack's model puts this at 80% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 80%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A wave majority is Democrats' shield and Republicans' target list for 2028
The market puts a Democratic House win in 2028 at 79%, so the durability of a war-driven majority matters beyond this race. The model's case rests on a partial pull-back of recent moves to 82%, which replays no better than no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 80% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 80%
- The market closes: 1 Feb 2029
- How it resolves: If the Democratic party has won control of the House in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.1 points against 2.1 points for standing still; closer on 20 of 60 days
- Fitted on 162 days of history
How the model works
The 2028 House market has tended to reverse part of its recent three-day moves over the following week, so the model starts from today's price and applies that pull back.
- After the market's number has moved over three days, about -0.475 in log-odds of that move carries into the next week, so a negative value means part of it reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.47 in log-odds; the data say -0.475 in log-odds ± 0.19. A rough rule.
Sources
- 2028 House winner · Democratic party: 80% on 11 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 82%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 81%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 79%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 79%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 79%
- Made 11 Nov 2026 for 18 Nov 2026: 80%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 80% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 80%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:57eb986b7558.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:57eb986b7558 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 10:04 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.