Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 41% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 41%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Louisiana's moratorium odds hinge on a statute, while the pressure stays local
A Louisiana statute would show whether the political shift can bind the industry beyond local pauses. The model's case rests on no law being scheduled and the window to end-2028 shortening, giving 31% against the market's 33%.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 41% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 41%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the State of Louisiana enacts a law or constitutional provision that establishes a statewide moratorium on new data centers between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A statewide moratorium on new data centers refers to a binding policy with legal force that generally prohibits or suspends the approval, permitting, construction, grid interconnection, or operation of all new data centers, or a subset of data centers that includes all new data centers with an interconnection capacity above 100 MW…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 28 days: off by 4.5 points against 4.5 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 28 days
- Fitted on 33 days of history
How the model works
Louisiana needs a statute for a statewide moratorium, and nothing is scheduled this week. The market's chance of 'by end of 2028' therefore drifts down as the window shortens. The market has too little history to rank inputs, so the model is the decay alone, and the market's own price is the starting point.
- With no law this week, the market's chance shrinks as the window to the end of 2028 shortens, at about 0 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...? · December 31, 2028: 41% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 34%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 41%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 41%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 41% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 41%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:588a0509ec8b · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:41 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.