# Fed Decision in December?

DataSnack's model puts this at 84% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 84%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A December hike is the Fed's default path; only oil or weak jobs can derail it**

A December hike would show the Fed holding its gradual path despite market stress. The model's case rests on the 10-year yield and the sister market's hike-path pricing, which put the chance at 76% in seven days against 88% now.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 84% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 84%
- The market closes: 10 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 44 days: off by 2.7 points against 3.1 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 44 days
- Fitted on 96 days of history

## How the model works

The market's own number is the base, nudged by the 10-year yield move and by the two-week move in the sister market's Hike-Pause-Hike chance, which reads how the hike path is being priced.

- Each one-point rise in the 10-year yield over a week moves the December hike chance by 0.31 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 1.26 in log-odds; the data say 0.31 in log-odds ± 0.77. A rough rule.
- Each log-odds rise over two weeks in the Hike-Pause-Hike chance on the sister market moves the December hike chance by 0.0456 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.07 in log-odds; the data say 0.0456 in log-odds ± 0.052, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Fed Decision in December? · 25 bps increase: 84% on 10 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) · Hike–Pause–Hike: 96% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 76%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 76%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 76%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 86%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 84% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 84%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

---

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:589fe27b7bda · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.