Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
DataSnack's model puts this at 68% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 80%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Coalition math, not party labels, sets who joins Israel's next government
The market puts Together at 75%, so coalition membership is priced across blocs. The model's case rests on airspace-closure odds carrying into the chance: 74% in seven days, a 9.6-point error against 11.4.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 80% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 68%
- The market closes: 30 Jun 2027
- How it resolves: Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 36 days: off by 9.6 points against 11.4 points for standing still; closer on 19 of 36 days
- Fitted on 42 days of history
How the model works
The market's chance moves with the week-ahead change in the odds of Israeli airspace closure, the strongest ranked input tied to security events. Otherwise it stays where it is.
- About 1.18 in log-odds of each move in the airspace-closure odds, in log-odds, carries into this party's chance of joining the government a week later. DataSnack's author expected 1.27 in log-odds; the data say 1.18 in log-odds ± 0.65, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) · December 31: 24% on 10 Nov 2026
- Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? · Together: 80% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 69%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 73%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 75%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 66%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 68% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 80%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:58ad88447262 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 07:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.