How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 98% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 98%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The Fed is choosing how much to tighten, so a 2026 cut has no path
The zero-cuts chance matters because it shows rate-sensitive assets now follow hike expectations, not cut hopes. The model's case rests on the Fed holding at 3.75-4% after a September hike, with a 76.8% December hike chance.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 98% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 98%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cut…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.4 points for standing still; closer on 21 of 60 days
- Fitted on 367 days of history
How the model works
With the Fed holding at 3.75-4% after a September hike and hawkish dissents in October, a cut in 2026 is very unlikely. The best forecast is that the zero-cuts chance stays near today's level, with a small allowance for momentum.
- About -10% of each recent move in the zero-cuts chance carries into next week. DataSnack's author expected 10%; the data say -10% ± 0.25. A rough rule.
Sources
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? · 0 (0 bps): 98% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 98%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 98% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 98%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 13 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:58bf281821c4 · Updated 8 Nov 2026 06:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.