Worlds 2026: Winner

DataSnack's model puts this at 51% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 63%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Gen.G's title chance is a regional claim: Korea's grip against China's return

The final decides whether the LCK takes a fifth straight title or the LPL its first champion since 2021. The model's case rests on Gen.G following the LCK region view, giving 68% in seven days; error is 3.9 points a day.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 63% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 51%
• The market closes: 29 Nov 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 League of Legends World Championship (Worlds 2026), currently scheduled for October 15 to November 14, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games, via th…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 53 days: off by 3.9 points against 4.9 points for standing still; closer on 28 of 53 days
• Fitted on 55 days of history

How the model works

Gen.G's title chance starts from where the market has it and follows the LCK region view as the bracket resolves. The Grand Final market was weighed as a way to read Gen.G's own road, but it already sits near 100% and adds no measured signal, so the model keeps the region view alone with a longer window.

• About 0.619 in log-odds of each move in the chance that a Korean team wins Worlds carries into Gen.G's title chance a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say 0.619 in log-odds ± 0.24, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Worlds 2026 Winning Region · LCK (South Korea): 63% on 10 Nov 2026
• Worlds 2026: Winner · Gen.G: 63% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 47%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 43%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 44%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 69%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 48%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 51%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 51% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 63%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:58efc76bbc8f · Updated 8 Nov 2026 15:09 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.