Next leader out of power before 2027?

DataSnack's model puts this at 53% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 51%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Israel's post-election arithmetic, not events, decides who leaves office first

This is a test of whether a deadlocked count turns into a change of leader, with effects on the next exit market. The model's case rests on a 45% chance in seven days, a pull-back after recent moves, and a new threat reading.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 51% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 53%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.9 points against 6.4 points for standing still; closer on 32 of 60 days
• Fitted on 124 days of history

How the model works

With no leader out this week, the chance of 'none before 2027' decays as year end nears. The market's own two-week move pulls back, a reading of threats to a leader's hold on power pulls it down, and crude oil adds a smaller effect.

• With no leader leaving this week, the chance of no exit shrinks at about 0 times the pace of a constant hazard as the window to year end shortens. DataSnack's author expected 0.66; the data say 0. A rough rule.
• About -0.246 of the market's own two-week move carries into next week, as a pull back after a move. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• About -0.43 of the two-week rise in the reading of threats to a leader's hold on power reaches this number next week, as more threat goes with fewer 'none' outcomes. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• About 0.0027 of the change in crude over two weeks reaches this number next week, as higher oil goes with fewer exits. DataSnack's author expected 0.00566; the data say 0.0027 ± 0.018. A rough rule.

Sources

• Next leader out of power before 2027? · None before 2027: 51% on 10 Nov 2026
• WTI crude oil, Cushing (FRED): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
• Threats to Mojtaba Khamenei's hold on power: 0.02 score on 9 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 52%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 54%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 55%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 45%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 47%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 54%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 53% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 51%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6080f4bca483 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:50 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.