What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 14% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 14%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A cheap status quo, not a negotiated one, keeps uranium dilution unlikely

Uranium terms only matter once the blockade is settled, and the market puts dilution at 14%. The model's case rests on the market's own level and a weak oil link (r 0.46); a blockade end by Nov 30, now 15.5%, would break it.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 14% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 14%
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: Rules
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.6 points against 2.5 points for standing still; closer on 25 of 60 days
• Fitted on 128 days of history

How the model works

The chance that a deal includes uranium dilution tends to follow the market's own level, and it has moved with crude oil prices, which react to the same Hormuz and ceasefire news.

• Each $1 rise in crude over two weeks moves the chance of this deal term by about 0.0129 in log-odds, since oil has risen when talks were tense and the market chance rose too. DataSnack's author expected 0.0139 in log-odds; the data say 0.0129 in log-odds ± 0.0086. A rough rule.

Sources

• WTI crude oil, Cushing (FRED): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
• What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Dilution of Iran's Uranium: 14% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 14%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 13%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 10%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 10%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 12%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 14%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 14% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 14%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:619efbc66783 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.