# What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 14% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 14%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**A cheap status quo, not a negotiated one, keeps uranium dilution unlikely**

Uranium terms only matter once the blockade is settled, and the market puts dilution at 14%. The model's case rests on the market's own level and a weak oil link (r 0.46); a blockade end by Nov 30, now 15.5%, would break it.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 14% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026-20260624150226501))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 14%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: Rules
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.6 points against 2.5 points for standing still; closer on 25 of 60 days
- Fitted on 128 days of history

## How the model works

The chance that a deal includes uranium dilution tends to follow the market's own level, and it has moved with crude oil prices, which react to the same Hormuz and ceasefire news.

- Each $1 rise in crude over two weeks moves the chance of this deal term by about 0.0129 in log-odds, since oil has risen when talks were tense and the market chance rose too. DataSnack's author expected 0.0139 in log-odds; the data say 0.0129 in log-odds ± 0.0086. A rough rule.

## Sources

- WTI crude oil, Cushing (FRED): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Dilution of Iran's Uranium: 14% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 14%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 13%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 10%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 12%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 14%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 14% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 14%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:619efbc66783 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:35 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.