Where will 10-year breakeven inflation be in seven days?

Where will 10-year breakeven inflation be in seven days? DataSnack's model says 2.32% (13 Nov 2026); it is 2.24% now. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Breakeven inflation is anchored; Fed hold odds are the only lever in view

The 10-year breakeven shows how far investors trust the Fed to contain inflation, shaping bond pricing and borrowing costs. The model's case rests on a fitted effect of -0.238 per rise in January hold odds, pointing to 2.33%.

The numbers

• 10-year breakeven inflation now: 2.24%
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2.32%
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.03 points against 0.03 points for standing still; closer on 26 of 60 days
• Fitted on 248 days of history

How the model works

The 10-year breakeven stays near its latest value. A January Fed hold priced as more likely tends to be followed by a lower breakeven, so the model reads that market's one-week move and adds the fitted effect.

• Each rise in the chance of a January Fed hold moves the 10-year breakeven by -0.238 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -0.1; the data say -0.238 ± 0.19, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Fed by

• Will the Fed hold in January? (its number now): Each rise in the chance of a January Fed hold moves the 10-year breakeven by -0.238 over the following week. DataSnack's author expected -0.1; the data say -0.238 ± 0.19, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Fed Decision in January? · No change: 41% on 13 Nov 2026
• 10-year breakeven inflation rate (FRED): 2.24% on 12 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 13 Nov 2026 for 20 Nov 2026: 2.32%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2.32% seven days from now.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 20 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:6318581a5bc9.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6318581a5bc9 · Updated 13 Nov 2026 05:23 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.