# US imports Russian diesel by...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 13% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**US Russian diesel imports hinge on a peace deal, not on the calendar**

A US purchase deal for Russian diesel is a sanctions and funding question for Europe and Moscow. The model's case rests on window decay alone, and it missed the last check by 33.3 points because it could not see cargoes turning away.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 13% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/us-imports-russian-diesel-by-october-31))
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Apr 2027
- How it resolves: On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009\_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russi…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Fitted on 4 days of history

## How the model works

With no event this week, the chance of a Russian diesel import by the close shrinks as the remaining window shortens. The market is too new to measure which inputs move it, so the model uses only the decay.

- The chance of a first import by March 31 shrinks as the window shortens, at 1 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

## Sources

- US imports Russian diesel by...? · March 31: 13% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 20%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 18%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 17%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 26%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 14%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 13%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6431a151672d · Updated 10 Nov 2026 17:30 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.