Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 74% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 74%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Google's lead rests on a model few can use, as Anthropic ships into its IPO

The top spot sets the narrative for enterprise buyers. The model's case rests on Google at 60% in seven days, but it was off by 10.1 points a day, no better than assuming no change, so the research page weighs more.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 74% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 74%
• The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including a…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 40 days: off by 10.1 points against 10.1 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 40 days
• Fitted on 152 days of history

How the model works

Google's chance for the top model on Dec 31 starts from where the market has it now. It shifts against a rising chance that OpenAI leads at the end of November, the strongest ranked input.

• Google's chance moves by 0 in log-odds for each unit rise in the OpenAI end-of-November chance, because a rival's rising chance of leading takes share from Google. DataSnack's author expected -1.1 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 1.2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Which company has best AI model end of 2026? · Google: 74% on 10 Nov 2026
• Which company has the best AI model end of November? · OpenAI: 2% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 61%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 61%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 64%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 65%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 66%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 71%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 74% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 74%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:664f532b9895 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:40 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.