How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 141 number seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 141 number. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The 2026 launch count is set by Falcon 9's pace; Starship's licence shapes 2027
The count gauges whether Starship can replace Falcon 9, which flew 85 percent of 2025 US launches. The model's case rests on a 138 count in seven days, since Falcon 9's pace anchors the ladder and attention shifts add nothing.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 141 number (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 141 number
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 35 days: off by 1.94 against 1.94 for standing still; closer on 0 of 35 days
- Fitted on 38 days of history
How the model works
The implied launch count for 2026 mostly stays where it is, since the ladder is anchored by launches already flown and the pace of Falcon 9. It nudges up slightly when attention on SpaceX, which tracks Starship flights, rises.
- Each week the implied launch count moves by 0 for each point of change in SpaceX page-view attention over the past week. DataSnack's author expected 0.0003; the data say 0 ± 0.001, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Wikipedia page views: SpaceX: 3316 views/day on 9 Nov 2026
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (the market's number): 141 number on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 138 number
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 139 number
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 139 number
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 139 number
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 140 number
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 141 number
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 141 number seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 141 number.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:66c73008e4b6 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:51 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.