Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 2% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 2%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A shrinking calendar, not new signals, is pulling this probability lower
A 2% chance on a Taiwan invasion sets the baseline for risk pricing across Asia. The model's case rests on decay at 0.46 of a constant hazard's pace; crude and mortgage links add nothing, with 0.3 points a day of error, same as no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 2% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 2%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting wi…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 0.3 points against 0.3 points for standing still; closer on 33 of 60 days
- Fitted on 372 days of history
How the model works
The chance of an invasion by year end decays as the window shrinks with no event. Moves in crude oil and in the mortgage rate, both ranked by the scan as loosely tied to the market, are added on top of that decay.
- With no invasion this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0.46 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 0.47; the data say 0.46. A rough rule.
- Each $1 rise in crude over two weeks moves the market by 0.00242 in log-odds in log-odds the following week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each point rise in the 30-year mortgage rate over a week moves the market by -0.081 in log-odds in log-odds the following week, a loose sign of tighter financial conditions. DataSnack's author expected -0.15 in log-odds; the data say -0.081 in log-odds ± 0.11. A rough rule.
Sources
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes: 2% on 10 Nov 2026
- WTI crude oil spot, Cushing (EIA): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRED): 7.18% on 5 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 1%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 2% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 2%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:68662dffd66f · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.