Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

DataSnack's model puts this at 27% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 27%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

An open field is repricing toward electable midterm winners

The nominee race sets the party's 2028 map, and the market now favors Ossoff's re-election over name recognition. The model's case rests on a mild pull back of -0.292 in log-odds after a sharp move, giving 28% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 27% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 27%
• The market closes: 8 Nov 2028
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.0 points against 1.0 points for standing still; closer on 26 of 60 days
• Fitted on 375 days of history

How the model works

After the midterm surge, Ossoff's price tends to give back part of a recent jump. The scan shows his 14-day move partly reversing the following week, so the model applies a mild pull back to the market's own number.

• After a sharp move, about -0.292 in log-odds of the last 14 days' move in log-odds reverses over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.17 in log-odds; the data say -0.292 in log-odds ± 0.23. A rough rule.

Sources

• Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 · Jon Ossoff: 27% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 28%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 27%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 27%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 26%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 27%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 28%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 27% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 27%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6cda35493fcb · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:05 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.