Iran leader end of 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 94% seven days from now (6 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 94%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Succession looks settled; the real risk to Iran's leadership is the blockade

A near-certain leader means any change would reshape blockade and Hormuz talks. The model's case rests on decay alone, 90% in seven days, tying standing still at 1.3 points a day. Watch the blockade announcement odds.}

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 94% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 94%
• The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition b…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.3 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 225 days of history

How the model works

Mojtaba Khamenei is the sitting supreme leader at about 90%. With no event this week, the odds of a leader change by year-end shrink as the remaining window shortens, so the number drifts slightly toward certainty. The ranked inputs are weak, so the model uses decay alone.

• With no change of leader this week, the chance of a different ruler by year-end shrinks at 0 of a constant-hazard pace as the window shortens. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.

Sources

• Iran leader end of 2026? · Mojtaba Khamenei: 94% on 11 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 90%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 91%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 94%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 93%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 93%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 94% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 94%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:6ce7a3bc9518.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6ce7a3bc9518 · Updated 6 Nov 2026 07:27 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.