Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 41% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 39%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A meeting is the price of the blockade, and neither side will pay it first
A meeting signals whether the blockade ends and Hormuz traffic, about 65% below pre-conflict levels, recovers. The model's case rests on the year-end window decaying at 1.12 times a constant hazard and on the 10-year yield move.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 39% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 41%
- The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs wh…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 41 days: off by 4.4 points against 7.8 points for standing still; closer on 28 of 41 days
- Fitted on 42 days of history
How the model works
With no meeting this week, the chance of a meeting by year-end decays as the window shortens. The 10-year yield move is added after the decay, then the weekly gasoline price move, since both have moved opposite to the market's number.
- With no meeting this week, the chance of a meeting by year-end shrinks at 1.12 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window closes. DataSnack's author expected 1.45; the data say 1.12, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each point the 10-year yield rises over two weeks moves the market's log-odds by -1.14 in log-odds, as the scan measured. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each dollar the weekly US gasoline price rises moves the market's log-odds by 0 in log-odds, as the scan measured. DataSnack's author expected -0.97 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.24, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? · December 31, 2026: 39% on 10 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
- US regular gasoline, retail (FRED): $4.15/gal on 2 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 39%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 37%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 45%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 41%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 39%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 41%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 41% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 39%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6d136229c6e4 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 14:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.