Fed decision in Dec 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 81% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 85%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

A December hike is priced as the Fed's default; oil and CPI are the brakes

A hike would show the Fed will keep tightening despite equity stress and weaker sentiment. The model's case rests on the Oct-Jan market moving first, putting the chance at 76% in seven days against 88% now.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 85% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 81%
• The market closes: 9 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 30 days: off by 2.7 points against 2.9 points for standing still; closer on 14 of 30 days
• Fitted on 368 days of history

How the model works

The December hike chance follows the Oct-Jan market's Pause-Hike-Pause path, which prices a December hike and reacts first to Fed signals. Otherwise it stays where it is.

• About 0.238 in log-odds of each one-day move in the Oct-Jan Pause-Hike-Pause market carries into the December hike chance a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.28 in log-odds; the data say 0.238 in log-odds ± 0.22, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) · Pause-Hike-Pause: 50% on 10 Nov 2026
• Fed decision in Dec 2026? · Hike 25bps: 85% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 67%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 70%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 76%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 77%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 77%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 87%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 81% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 85%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6d643fe615c9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 11:26 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.