Netanyahu out by...?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 69% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Netanyahu's exit odds hinge on coalition arithmetic that neither bloc has

Israel's deadlock decides who leads next and sets up other leader-exit questions. The model's case rests on the chance shrinking as the year-end window closes, though it was off by 14.3 points a day against 14.5 for no change.</br>

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 69% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible re…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 4 days: off by 14.3 points against 14.5 points for standing still; closer on 2 of 4 days
• Fitted on 9 days of history

How the model works

This market gives the chance Netanyahu is out by a date near year-end, and the question can resolve on any day before the close. With no news in a given week, the chance of an exit before the deadline shrinks as the days run out. The model applies that decay to the market's own latest value.

• With no event this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 1 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Netanyahu out by...? · June 30, 2027: 69% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 60%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 54%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 62%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 64%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 63%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 63%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 69%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:6fd784e6ed0e · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:55 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.