2028 popular vote margin of victory?
DataSnack's model puts this at 22% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 21%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A midterm wave is lifting the party's 2028 margin, but no nominee anchors it
The margin reads as a test of whether the midterm wave outlasts the election. The model's case, 40% in seven days, rests on a modest pull back of the recent move, and a simpler version beat Scout's richer one.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 21% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 22%
- The market closes: 6 May 2029
- How it resolves: If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 7.00-7.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.2 points against 3.2 points for standing still; closer on 19 of 60 days
- Fitted on 117 days of history
How the model works
The market's number tends to give back part of its recent two-week move, so the model starts from where the market is now and pulls it back.
- After a two-week move, the market gives back about -0.156 in log-odds of that move over the next week. DataSnack's author expected -0.31 in log-odds; the data say -0.156 in log-odds ± 0.26. A rough rule.
Sources
- 2028 popular vote margin of victory? · Democratic by 9.0% or more: 21% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 40%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 29%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 27%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 29%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 29%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 28%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 22% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 21%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:708231553ac1 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 07:47 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.