# Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

DataSnack's model puts this at 30% seven days from now (6 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 31%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Vance leads, but the midterm rout puts every administration insider on trial**

The nomination decides who inherits Trump's coalition after a loss read as a verdict on his administration. The model's case rests on Vance's recent momentum and another market's Vance price, putting him at 33% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 31% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/republican-presidential-nominee-2028))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 30%
- The market closes: 8 Nov 2028
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.7 points against 2.0 points for standing still; closer on 46 of 60 days
- Fitted on 360 days of history

## How the model works

Vance's chance carries a little of its recent momentum forward, and follows the move in another market's price for him. Nothing else ranked has a causal path to the nomination.

- About 0.0794 in log-odds of the last two weeks' move in Vance's chance carries into the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.2 in log-odds; the data say 0.0794 in log-odds ± 0.027. A rough rule.
- About 0.119 in log-odds of the move in the other market's Vance price over two weeks shows up in this market a week later. DataSnack's author expected 0.26 in log-odds; the data say 0.119 in log-odds ± 0.079. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance: 31% on 10 Nov 2026
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance: 34% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 38%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 35%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 30%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 30% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 31%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:716d5e5d69fa · Updated 6 Nov 2026 03:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.