Recession in 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 20% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 21%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A 2027 recession call hinges on two straight quarters of GDP decline
A recession call sets the backdrop for hiring, capital spending and credit decisions through 2027. The model's case rests on no new recession signal this week and on partial reversal of recent daily moves, which leaves 23% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 21% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 20%
- The market closes: 31 Jan 2028
- How it resolves: If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.7 points against 1.7 points for standing still; closer on 23 of 60 days
- Fitted on 193 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a recession in the window decays as time runs out, and the market tends to partly reverse its most recent one-day move.
- With no recession signal this week, the chance decays at 0 of the pace of a constant hazard as the window shrinks. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0. A rough rule.
- A day's move in the market tends to partly reverse over the next week, at -0.607 in log-odds of the move. DataSnack's author expected -0.5 in log-odds; the data say -0.607 in log-odds ± 0.27. A rough rule.
Sources
- Recession in 2027? · Yes: 21% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 24%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 20%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 20%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 20% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 21%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:71938ac374be · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:57 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.