Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
DataSnack's model puts this at 1% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 3%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Hormuz stays shut because each side's blockade is its bargaining chip
A reopening would signal a package deal that also ends the US blockade, and the market puts it at 4%. The model's case rests on traffic being far from the 60 ship-call threshold and on the chance decaying toward the deadline.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 3% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 1%
- The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.9 points against 2.1 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 82 days of history
How the model works
Reopening needs Portwatch's 7-day average of ship calls to reach 60, and with mines, tanker attacks and a blockade in place that is far off. With no event, the chance decays toward the deadline. Diplomatic progress in the Qatar-mediated talks is the one input that could lift it, and the scan found it to be positively linked.
- With no reopening this week, the chance shrinks as the window to November 30 shortens, at 1.82 of a constant hazard's pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 1.82, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each full point of rise in the reading of Qatar-mediated talks progress moves the chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.6 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.56, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · Yes: 3% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks making progress: 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 2%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 1%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 1% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 3%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:7253e7ef1746 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.