Next Israeli government formed by...?
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 84% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Israel's next government is set by the election calendar, not coalition math
Only a government born of the 2026 election or a later one counts, so the vote's timing and the length of coalition talks set the pace. The model's case rests on a 74% chance in seven days as the window shortens.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 84% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 1 Jul 2027
- How it resolves: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolu…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 3 days: off by 8.9 points against 8.5 points for standing still; closer on 1 of 3 days
- Fitted on 8 days of history
How the model works
The market asks whether a new government is sworn in by 30 June 2027. With no swearing-in this week, the chance drifts down as the window to the deadline shortens. Nothing is ranked yet, so the model is the hazard decay from the market's own latest number.
- With no government sworn in this week, the chance of one by the deadline shrinks at 1 of the pace a constant hazard would imply. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
Sources
- Next Israeli government formed by...? · June 30, 2027: 84% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 74%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 83%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 79%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 82%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 84%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:725b1a234ae9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 15:13 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.