GTA 6 launch postponed again?
DataSnack's model puts this at 1% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 1%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A third GTA 6 delay now costs more than shipping, so the risk is fading
The date matters beyond gaming because Take-Two leans on one title, and a miss would defer evidence for its stock. The model's case rests on the chance decaying as the window to November 19 closes, with the market at 2%.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 1% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 1%
- The market closes: 20 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mar…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.0 points against 0.9 points for standing still; closer on 20 of 60 days
- Fitted on 330 days of history
How the model works
With the launch date days away and no delay announced, the chance of a postponement decays as the window shrinks. The market's own recent moves tend to partly reverse, so a small reversal term is added on top of the decay.
- With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks at about 1.74 of the pace a constant hazard would imply as the window to November 19 closes. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 1.74. A rough rule.
- About -0.281 in log-odds of the last week's move in the market's log-odds carries into the next week, a negative value meaning it tends to reverse. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.281 in log-odds ± 0.12. A rough rule.
Sources
- GTA 6 launch postponed again? · Yes: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 1%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 1%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 1% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 1%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:759a0091e926 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:11 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.