Number of rate cuts in 2026?
DataSnack's model puts this at 98% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 98%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
A Fed that paused to gather data has priced out cuts for 2026
Zero cuts at 97% means December's decision is about tightening, which matters for every rate-sensitive asset. The model's case rests on the hike reading carrying the odds, with a 1.1-point daily miss against 1.2 for no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 98% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 98%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.1 points against 1.2 points for standing still; closer on 31 of 60 days
- Fitted on 393 days of history
How the model works
The market gives 96.6% to zero cuts in 2026, with the Fed on hold and leaning toward a hike. Over a week the number mostly stays put and shifts with how strongly news points to a hawkish Fed. One link carries the change in the hike reading into the log-odds of zero cuts.
- Each unit rise in the reading that the Fed leans toward a December hike moves the market's log-odds of zero cuts by 0.27 in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.45 in log-odds; the data say 0.27 in log-odds ± 0.6. A rough rule.
Sources
- Reading: Fed leaning toward a December hike: 0.36 score on 9 Nov 2026
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? · Exactly 0 cuts: 98% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 96%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 98%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 97%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 98%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 98% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 98%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:765fdb0ece13 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:36 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.