Which brands will advertise during the Big Game?

DataSnack's model puts this at 80% seven days from now; the market's number (Kalshi) is 79%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

With inventory sold out, the Big Game ad question is about commitment

A sold-out game shifts risk from access to follow-through, and AI brands at 70% or higher test how far they will pay for mass reach. The model's case rests on Gemini at 94% tending to ease back, to 93% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 79% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 80%
• The market closes: 15 Feb 2027
• How it resolves: If Disney+ airs a qualifying advertisement during the official national 2027 Big Game broadcast, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 2.1 points against 2.2 points for standing still; closer on 29 of 60 days
• Fitted on 113 days of history

How the model works

The Gemini chance is already high and has tended to pull back after a two-week move, so the model reads the market's own recent change and applies a modest reversal.

• About -0.134 in log-odds of the market's own two-week move in log-odds carries into next week, and a negative value means it tends to reverse. DataSnack's author expected -0.3 in log-odds; the data say -0.134 in log-odds ± 0.19. A rough rule.

Sources

• Which brands will advertise during the Big Game? · Gemini: 79% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 93%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 80% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 79%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:76f04761bcac · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.