When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Kalshi) is 98% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Astra's release turns on OpenAI's own safety bar, not on engineering readiness

Timing shows how far a self-set safety gate, not a product calendar, governs flagship launches. The model's case rests on decay as the window shrinks, 65% in seven days, but it missed the Oct 31 jump and barely beats no change.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 98% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 31 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: If OpenAI releases a model called Astra 6.1 or greater to the public before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 9 days: off by 17.5 points against 18.4 points for standing still; closer on 6 of 9 days
• Fitted on 15 days of history

How the model works

Astra 6.1 itself was shelved, so the question rides on a 6.2 Astra counting under the 6.1+ rules. The leaks and Altman's remark that the next GPT is coming soon keep the chance high. If nothing ships this week, the by-date chance decays as the window to the close shrinks. The model applies that decay to the market's own number and lets the data fit any carry beyond it.

• With no release this week, the chance of a release by year end shrinks as the window shortens, at 1 of a constant hazard. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
• About 0 of the market's own recent move carries into next week beyond the decay. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• When will OpenAI release Astra 6.1+? · Before Dec 31, 2026: 98% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 62%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 88%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 90%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 86%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 98%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 98%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:7aea7750f58b · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:06 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.