Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
DataSnack's model puts this at 32% seven days from now (9 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 32%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Early-exit odds track the party's tolerance for a weakened president
A 33% chance of departure before January 2029 reads as a gauge of how long the party backs a weakened president. The model's case rests on time decay plus a reading of distancing from allies, giving 36% in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 32% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 32%
- The market closes: 20 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.6 points against 1.7 points for standing still; closer on 23 of 60 days
- Fitted on 296 days of history
How the model works
With no news, the chance of an early exit before January 2029 decays as the window shortens. A reading of stories on the administration distancing itself from its allies after the midterm defeat is then read for what it adds beyond that decay.
- With no exit news this week, the chance shrinks as the window to January 2029 shortens, at 2 of a constant hazard's pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2. A rough rule.
- About 0.465 in log-odds in log-odds of each rise in the reading of the administration distancing itself from allies carries into the chance of Trump leaving before 2029. DataSnack's author expected 0.46 in log-odds; the data say 0.465 in log-odds ± 0.2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death) · Before January 20, 2029: 32% on 11 Nov 2026
- Reading: administration distancing itself from Bolsonaro's flight: 0.03 score on 8 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 30%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 32%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 33%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 31%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 32%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 32% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 32%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this model can export it as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Can I pull its numbers into a spreadsheet? Its feed is at https://datasnack.ai/feed/m/ch:7b185d51cb53.csv, with each forecast's error and standing still's beside it.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:7b185d51cb53 · Updated 9 Nov 2026 07:26 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.