New Taipei Mayor Election Winner
DataSnack's model puts this at 61% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 61%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
New Taipei is a near two-way race, and the market has not moved off its price
New Taipei is a large local contest, so the result will be read as a signal of party strength heading into later elections. The model's case rests on no carried-over momentum: it puts Su at 56% in seven days, matching the current price.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 61% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 61%
- The market closes: 29 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resol…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 6.8 points against 6.8 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
- Fitted on 81 days of history
How the model works
Election day is scheduled for November 28, so nothing decays before it. The model starts from the market's own price and adds a share of its recent move, which keeps it close to standing still.
- About 0 in log-odds of the market's recent move in log-odds carries on over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.2 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.58, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
Sources
- New Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Su Chiao-hui: 61% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 56%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 60%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 61%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 62%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 65%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 61%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 61% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 61%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:7d90c2708f7c · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:46 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.