US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
DataSnack's model puts this at 67% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 68%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
The blockade is the price of any deal, so neither side wants to move first
An announced end to the blockade would be the clearest sign of a real US-Iran deal, with Hormuz transits about 65% below pre-conflict levels. The model's case rests on decay as the window shortens, plus talks progress and crude.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 68% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 67%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 36 days: off by 2.9 points against 5.2 points for standing still; closer on 26 of 36 days
- Fitted on 40 days of history
How the model works
The chance of a US announcement ending the blockade decays toward the date if nothing happens. It is nudged by reported progress in the Qatar-mediated talks, then by crude oil, which rises when Hormuz shipping tension rises and pushes the pressure to end the blockade.
- With no announcement this week, the chance shrinks at about 0.68 times the pace of a constant hazard as the window to the date shortens. DataSnack's author expected 0.69; the data say 0.68, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
- Each 1.0 rise in the talks-progress reading over a week moves the chance by about 0.618 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each $1 rise in crude over two weeks, a sign of a tighter Hormuz and blockade standoff, moves the chance by about 0.016 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.015 in log-odds; the data say 0.016 in log-odds ± 0.0066, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? · March 31: 68% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks making progress: 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026
- WTI crude oil spot, Cushing (EIA): $99.64/bbl on 3 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 64%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 71%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 61%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 68%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 67% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 68%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:7ffa41a8f571 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:05 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.