2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

DataSnack's model puts this at 20% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 20%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Ossoff's lead is a midterm-wave premium on a name, not a campaign

The Democratic side is put at 67.5% to win the White House, so who converts that wave into a nominee matters well beyond Ossoff's 22%. The model's case rests on a partial pull-back after the midterm jump, to 23%.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 20% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 20%
• The market closes: 7 Nov 2029
• How it resolves: If Jon Ossoff is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 9 of 60 days
• Fitted on 311 days of history

How the model works

After a big jump on the midterm result, short-term moves in the Ossoff number have tended to partly reverse over the following week, so the model starts from the current price and adds that pull back.

• About -0.458 in log-odds of each one-day move in the market's number carries into the next week, so a negative value means a jump partly reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.458 in log-odds ± 0.15. A rough rule.

Sources

• 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · Jon Ossoff: 20% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 22%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 23%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 20%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 22%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 21%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 20%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 20% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 20%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:81285f75efe7 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 03:10 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.