# 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

DataSnack's model puts this at 20% seven days from now (7 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 20%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Ossoff's lead is a midterm-wave premium on a name, not a campaign**

The Democratic side is put at 67.5% to win the White House, so who converts that wave into a nominee matters well beyond Ossoff's 22%. The model's case rests on a partial pull-back after the midterm jump, to 23%.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 20% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresperson))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 20%
- The market closes: 7 Nov 2029
- How it resolves: If Jon Ossoff is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 1.4 points against 1.3 points for standing still; closer on 9 of 60 days
- Fitted on 311 days of history

## How the model works

After a big jump on the midterm result, short-term moves in the Ossoff number have tended to partly reverse over the following week, so the model starts from the current price and adds that pull back.

- About -0.458 in log-odds of each one-day move in the market's number carries into the next week, so a negative value means a jump partly reverses. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.458 in log-odds ± 0.15. A rough rule.

## Sources

- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · Jon Ossoff: 20% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 20%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 22%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 20%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 20% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 20%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:81285f75efe7 · Updated 7 Nov 2026 03:10 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.