Fed decision in Jan 2027?
DataSnack's model puts this at 51% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 51%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Without forward guidance, data and dissents now steer the Fed's January path
If the Fed pauses in January, it signals the tightening that began in September has ended. The model's 83% hold case rests on mean-reversion after sharp moves and on the 50+ bps hike chance, which pulls the hold chance down.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 51% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 51%
- The market closes: 27 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.3 points against 5.7 points for standing still; closer on 33 of 60 days
- Fitted on 388 days of history
How the model works
The hold chance mean-reverts after sharp moves. A rise in the other market's 50+ bps hike chance pulls it down, and news readings that point to a hold or soft data add a smaller nudge.
- Over the last 14 days the hold chance has tended to reverse about 0.248 in log-odds of its move over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.248 in log-odds; the data say 0.248 in log-odds ± 0.073. A rough rule.
- When the other market's chance of a 50+ bps hike rises over a week, the hold chance moves about -0.43 in log-odds of that change in log-odds over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each point rise in news stories pointing to a hold or soft data adds about 0 in log-odds to the hold chance's log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.786 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.33. A rough rule.
Sources
- Fed decision in Jan 2027? · Fed maintains rate: 51% on 10 Nov 2026
- Fed Decision in January? · 50+ bps increase: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories point to a Fed hold or soft data: 0.375 score on 9 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 82%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 82%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 81%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 84%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 51% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 51%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:818de4738ee5 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.