# Fed decision in Jan 2027?

DataSnack's model puts this at 51% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 51%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Without forward guidance, data and dissents now steer the Fed's January path**

If the Fed pauses in January, it signals the tightening that began in September has ended. The model's 83% hold case rests on mean-reversion after sharp moves and on the 50+ bps hike chance, which pulls the hold chance down.}

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 51% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 51%
- The market closes: 27 Jan 2027
- How it resolves: If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 5.3 points against 5.7 points for standing still; closer on 33 of 60 days
- Fitted on 388 days of history

## How the model works

The hold chance mean-reverts after sharp moves. A rise in the other market's 50+ bps hike chance pulls it down, and news readings that point to a hold or soft data add a smaller nudge.

- Over the last 14 days the hold chance has tended to reverse about 0.248 in log-odds of its move over the following week. DataSnack's author expected 0.248 in log-odds; the data say 0.248 in log-odds ± 0.073. A rough rule.
- When the other market's chance of a 50+ bps hike rises over a week, the hold chance moves about -0.43 in log-odds of that change in log-odds over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each point rise in news stories pointing to a hold or soft data adds about 0 in log-odds to the hold chance's log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.786 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.33. A rough rule.

## Sources

- Fed decision in Jan 2027? · Fed maintains rate: 51% on 10 Nov 2026
- Fed Decision in January? · 50+ bps increase: 1% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: stories point to a Fed hold or soft data: 0.375 score on 9 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 82%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 82%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 80%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 81%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 84%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 51% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 51%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:818de4738ee5 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 13:45 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.