Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

DataSnack's model puts this at 95% seven days from now (8 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 95%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

SpaceX's record is set; only Anthropic's valuation at listing can break it

The record turns on first-day market value, so SpaceX's roughly $2.1 trillion close leaves Anthropic the only contender. The model's case rests on holding the market's 89% for SpaceX near flat, with 80% a week out.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 95% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 95%
• The market closes: 2 Jan 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name co…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 8.2 points against 8.2 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 60 days
• Fitted on 247 days of history

How the model works

With no ranked input carrying a clear mechanism, the model keeps the market's own chance for SpaceX where it is and lets it drift only with its own recent momentum.

• About 0 in log-odds of the market's own recent move in log-odds carries into next week, so with none it stands still. DataSnack's author expected 0 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.37. A rough rule.

Sources

• Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? · SpaceX: 95% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 80%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 86%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 89%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 90%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 95% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 95%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:8365693ab48a · Updated 8 Nov 2026 05:18 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.