Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026?

DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 22% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Musk's weekly post count tracks the news he chooses to answer

One owner's output on his own platform shows how politics and corporate news shape attention. The model's case rests on holding the 280-299 chance at 21% with no momentum, giving 12% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 22% (the market)
• DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
• The market closes: 13 Nov 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 6 12:00 PM ET to November 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count towar…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Fitted on 1 days of history

How the model works

The market is new and nothing can be ranked yet, so the model keeps this bucket's chance where it is, with a slider for momentum over a one-day window.

• About 0 in log-odds of the bucket's latest daily move in log-odds carries forward over the next week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.

Sources

• Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026? · 260-279: 22% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 12%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 11%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 12%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 16%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 16%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 17%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 22%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:84c3cf2beac9 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 16:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.