Which company has the best AI model end of November?

DataSnack's model puts this at 77% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 77%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Google's lead rests on a model few can use, and Anthropic just shipped a rival

The ranking sets the narrative for enterprise buyers, and Anthropic has an IPO incentive to take it. The model's case rests on Google's Oct 28 lead holding, giving 72% in seven days, though it only matched standing still over 37 days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 77% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 77%
• The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they dis…
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 37 days: off by 13.3 points against 13.3 points for standing still; closer on 0 of 37 days
• Fitted on 42 days of history

How the model works

Google holds the lead after Gemini 4 Carbon on Oct 28, and the market's number mostly stays put. The main risk is an Anthropic release (a Claude Mythos 5.5 hint is out) that could change the ranking. The model reads the shift in the market's year-end chance for Anthropic as a signal of that risk.

• About 0 in log-odds of each 14-day move in the market's year-end chance for Anthropic carries into Google's end-of-November chance. DataSnack's author expected 0.39 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 1.7, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• Which company has best AI model end of 2026? · Anthropic: 19% on 10 Nov 2026
• Which company has the best AI model end of November? · Google: 77% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 72%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 72%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 75%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 77%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 73%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 75%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 77% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 77%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:84d2f9542b1e · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:25 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.