AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group B Winner

DataSnack's model puts this at 3% seven days from now; the market's number (Polymarket) is 6%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

The Asian Cup delay turned Group B into a question about rules and the calendar

The December 2027 start sits past the February cutoff, so group prices now reflect market rules, not football. The model's case rests on Jordan's weekly moves partly reversing (r -0.36), but its 11.3-point error trails no change at 11.1.

The numbers

• The market's number (Polymarket) now: 6% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 3%
• The market closes: 6 Feb 2027
• How it resolves: This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group B at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2027 AFC Asian Cup. If the 2027 AFC Asian Cup is cancelled, postponed after February 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the AFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 48 days: off by 11.3 points against 11.1 points for standing still; closer on 20 of 48 days
• Fitted on 55 days of history

How the model works

The postponement to December 2027 pushed the tournament past the market's resolution window, so group prices have been repricing and look noisy. The scan shows Jordan's own weekly moves partly reverse a week later (r -0.36), so the model reads the market's own recent move and fades part of it.

• About -0.564 in log-odds of the last week's move in Jordan's chance carries into the next week, a negative value meaning a partial snap back. DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.564 in log-odds ± 0.48, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

Sources

• AFC Asian Cup 2027: Group B Winner · Jordan: 6% on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 3%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 3% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 6%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 17 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:85c46e77a3c9 · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.