Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
DataSnack's model puts this at 10% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 6%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Centre's veto, not the seat count, decides who governs Sweden
The result shows whether Sweden's blocs can still govern without the Sweden Democrats. The model's case rests on the chance giving back part of its recent 14-day moves; it says 23% in seven days, against 42% now for M + KD + L + C.}
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 6% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 10%
- The market closes: 1 Aug 2027
- How it resolves: Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 31 days: off by 3.1 points against 3.9 points for standing still; closer on 19 of 31 days
- Fitted on 50 days of history
How the model works
The coalition's chance has tended to give back part of its recent 14-day moves over the following week. The model reads its own recent change and applies that pull-back to today's price.
- After a 14-day move in this coalition's chance, about -0.395 in log-odds of the move tends to carry into the next week (a negative number means it reverses). DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.395 in log-odds ± 0.23, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- Which coalition will form the next Swedish government? · S + MP + C + V: 6% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 12%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 10% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 6%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:894458f31019 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:11 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.