# Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

DataSnack's model puts this at 10% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 6%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Centre's veto, not the seat count, decides who governs Sweden**

The result shows whether Sweden's blocs can still govern without the Sweden Democrats. The model's case rests on the chance giving back part of its recent 14-day moves; it says 23% in seven days, against 42% now for M + KD + L + C.}

## The numbers

- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 6% ([the market](https://polymarket.com/event/which-coalition-will-form-the-next-swedish-government))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 10%
- The market closes: 1 Aug 2027
- How it resolves: Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 31 days: off by 3.1 points against 3.9 points for standing still; closer on 19 of 31 days
- Fitted on 50 days of history

## How the model works

The coalition's chance has tended to give back part of its recent 14-day moves over the following week. The model reads its own recent change and applies that pull-back to today's price.

- After a 14-day move in this coalition's chance, about -0.395 in log-odds of the move tends to carry into the next week (a negative number means it reverses). DataSnack's author expected -0.4 in log-odds; the data say -0.395 in log-odds ± 0.23, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.

## Sources

- Which coalition will form the next Swedish government? · S + MP + C + V: 6% on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 23%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 21%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 19%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 12%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 8%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 10% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Polymarket) is 6%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:894458f31019 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:11 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.