Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner
DataSnack has a model of this question but not yet enough data to forecast it; the market's number (Polymarket) is 64% (10 Nov 2026). It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Incumbency still carries Ljubljana, but a one-round win is not assured
A Ljubljana result shows whether a long-serving mayor can hold the capital against a national-level challenger. The model's case rests on the market's own recent move, which points to 67% for Janković in seven days.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 64% (the market)
- DataSnack's model: not enough data to forecast yet
- The market closes: 16 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this ma…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 17 days: off by 2.4 points against 4.2 points for standing still; closer on 11 of 17 days
- Fitted on 27 days of history
How the model works
Nothing is ranked yet, so the model is the simplest honest one: the market's own number stays near where it is, with a small allowance for momentum before the vote on November 15.
- About -0.612 in log-odds of the market's own recent move in log-odds carries forward over the next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.1 in log-odds; the data say -0.612 in log-odds ± 0.21, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data closely.
Sources
- Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner · Zoran Janković: 64% on 10 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 67%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 63%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 65%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 63%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? There isn't one yet: the model doesn't have enough data.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 64%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:8c2cc0612dd8 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:21 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.