When will Anthropic release Mythos?

DataSnack's model puts this at 4% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 4%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

DataSnack's read

Mythos shipped gated, so the market's question turns on what counts as release

Staged access tiers decide how any AI launch resolves, and the IPO timing raises the stakes. The model's case rests on the window shrinking at 0.87 of a constant hazard, giving 6% in seven days.

The numbers

• The market's number (Kalshi) now: 4% (the market)
• DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 4%
• The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
• How it resolves: If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
• Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
• Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.8 points against 4.0 points for standing still; closer on 32 of 60 days
• Fitted on 196 days of history

How the model works

With 56 days left and no sign of a release, the chance of a release before Jan 1 shrinks as the window shortens. The IPO valuation reading, ranked by the scan, adds a small push beyond that decay.

• With no release news this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0.87 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.87. A rough rule.
• Each 1.0 rise in the IPO valuation reading moves the chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.48 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.3. A rough rule.

Sources

• When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% on 10 Nov 2026
• Anthropic IPO valuation rising (reading): 0.0333 score on 10 Nov 2026

The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

• Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 6%
• Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4%
• Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 5%
• Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 6%
• Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 6%
• Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4%

Questions

What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 4% seven days from now.

What is the market's number? The market's number (Kalshi) is 4%.

How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:8d4a86ee92a2 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.