# When will Anthropic release Mythos?

DataSnack's model puts this at 4% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 4%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Mythos shipped gated, so the market's question turns on what counts as release**

Staged access tiers decide how any AI launch resolves, and the IPO timing raises the stakes. The model's case rests on the window shrinking at 0.87 of a constant hazard, giving 6% in seven days.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 4% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxclaude))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 4%
- The market closes: 1 Dec 2026
- How it resolves: If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.8 points against 4.0 points for standing still; closer on 32 of 60 days
- Fitted on 196 days of history

## How the model works

With 56 days left and no sign of a release, the chance of a release before Jan 1 shrinks as the window shortens. The IPO valuation reading, ranked by the scan, adds a small push beyond that decay.

- With no release news this week, the chance shrinks as the window closes, at 0.87 of the pace of a constant hazard. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 0.87. A rough rule.
- Each 1.0 rise in the IPO valuation reading moves the chance by 0 in log-odds in log-odds. DataSnack's author expected 0.48 in log-odds; the data say 0 in log-odds ± 0.3. A rough rule.

## Sources

- When will Anthropic release Mythos? · Before Jan 1, 2027: 4% on 10 Nov 2026
- Anthropic IPO valuation rising (reading): 0.0333 score on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 4%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 5%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 6%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 4%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 4% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 4%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

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Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:8d4a86ee92a2 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 06:16 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.