Taipei Mayor Election Winner
DataSnack's model puts this at 69% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Polymarket) is 66%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
DataSnack's read
Taipei's fixed-date race leaves Chiang's lead hostage to polls, not time
The November 28 result tests how far Chiang's incumbent position holds against Puma Shen. The model's case rests on momentum, the poll average and the 10-year yield, with error of 3.5 points a day against 4.6 for no change.
The numbers
- The market's number (Polymarket) now: 66% (the market)
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 69%
- The market closes: 29 Nov 2026
- How it resolves: Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve b…
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.5 points against 4.6 points for standing still; closer on 41 of 60 days
- Fitted on 81 days of history
How the model works
The election is on a fixed date, so Chiang's chance does not decay. Momentum in the market's own number carries on in part, the Taipei poll average adds a polling input, and the 10-year yield, the strongest ranked input, adds a broad market-mood signal.
- About 0.103 in log-odds of the market's recent move in Chiang's chance carries into next week. DataSnack's author expected 0.21 in log-odds; the data say 0.103 in log-odds ± 0.24. A rough rule.
- Each point of change in Chiang's poll average over a week moves the market's number by -0.0142 in log-odds the following week. DataSnack's estimate, not yet tested on data.
- Each point the 10-year Treasury yield rises over two weeks moves the market's number by -0.881 in log-odds the following week. DataSnack's author expected -1; the data say -0.881 ± 0.23, fitted on the same days the replay scores. Fits past data roughly.
Sources
- Taipei Mayor Election Winner · Chiang Wan-an: 66% on 10 Nov 2026
- Chiang Wan-an: Taipei mayoral poll average (Wikipedia): 43.50% on 4 Nov 2026
- 10-year Treasury yield (FRED): 4.86% on 6 Nov 2026
The record
It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
Waiting for their day:
- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 71%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 66%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 70%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 71%
Questions
What is DataSnack's forecast? DataSnack's model says 69% seven days from now.
What is the market's number? The market's number (Polymarket) is 66%.
How does the model work? It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.
How accurate has it been? It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.
Can I download the model? Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.
Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a1d8d5eaa14c · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.