# When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

DataSnack's model puts this at 71% seven days from now (10 Nov 2026); the market's number (Kalshi) is 69%. It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

## DataSnack's read

**Normal Hormuz traffic hinges on a blockade neither side will be first to lift**

Hormuz traffic is the clearest read on whether a US-Iran deal is real, and the market puts normal traffic before 2029 at 69%. The model's case rests on Qatar-mediated talks progress, and it says 71% in seven days. Watch the blockade.

## The numbers

- The market's number (Kalshi) now: 69% ([the market](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuznorm))
- DataSnack's model, seven days from now: 71%
- The market closes: 1 Jan 2029
- How it resolves: If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Record: It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.
- Replay on the last 60 days: off by 3.9 points against 4.1 points for standing still; closer on 33 of 60 days
- Fitted on 71 days of history

## How the model works

With no event, a by-date chance drifts as the window shortens. On top of that, a rising reading of Qatar-mediated talks progress has tended to precede a rise in the chance of normal traffic.

- The chance of normal traffic before 2029 shrinks toward standing still as the window closes, at 2 of a constant-hazard pace. DataSnack's author expected 1; the data say 2, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.
- Each rise of one in the reading of Qatar-mediated talks progress over two weeks moves the log-odds by about 0.41 in log-odds, since talks coverage has come with a rising chance of reopening. DataSnack's author expected 0.5 in log-odds; the data say 0.41 in log-odds ± 0.51, fitted on the same days the replay scores. A rough rule.

## Sources

- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? · Before Jan 1, 2029: 69% on 10 Nov 2026
- Reading: Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks making progress: 0.6 score on 10 Nov 2026

## The record

It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026.

Waiting for their day:

- Made 5 Nov 2026 for 12 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 6 Nov 2026 for 13 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 7 Nov 2026 for 14 Nov 2026: 69%
- Made 8 Nov 2026 for 15 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 9 Nov 2026 for 16 Nov 2026: 68%
- Made 10 Nov 2026 for 17 Nov 2026: 71%

## Questions

**What is DataSnack's forecast?** DataSnack's model says 71% seven days from now.

**What is the market's number?** The market's number (Kalshi) is 69%.

**How does the model work?** It is an explicit equation fitted on data, with every link and source listed above. DataSnack's agents propose changes every night, and a replay against real data decides what is kept.

**How accurate has it been?** It has no graded forecasts yet; the first is graded on 12 Nov 2026. DataSnack's overall record is at https://datasnack.ai/accuracy.

**Can I download the model?** Readers who cover this market can export the model as an Excel workbook with working formulas from its page. A free example workbook: https://datasnack.ai/site/labs/datasnack-tariff-mortgage-lab.xlsx.

---

Canonical: https://datasnack.ai/m/ch:a510730860b2 · Updated 10 Nov 2026 05:15 UTC · DataSnack forecasts are analysis, not investment advice.